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Tracking CO2 emissions from space could help support climate agreements

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NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) satellite can make precise measurements of global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from space. (NASA/JPL-Caltech)

Ray Nassar, University of Toronto

The central objective of the Paris Agreement is to limit Earth’s warming to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels, but preferably 1.5 C.

This challenging task will require policies and tools to enable every sector of society to drastically reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to eventually reach net-zero.

Enacting the most effective and efficient strategies to reduce emissions starts with knowing in detail where, when and how much of these greenhouse gases we are emitting, followed by implementing emission reduction policies and tracking our progress.

Is it possible to track carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and emission reductions from space? New research from my group shows that it is.

Why CO2 matters

CO2 is the primary greenhouse gas driving climate change. Burning fossil fuels for electricity generation, heating buildings, industry and transportation has elevated the CO2 in our atmosphere well beyond natural levels.

Currently, CO2 emission reporting is mainly done by accounting for the mass of fossil fuels purchased and used, then calculating the expected emissions — not actual atmospheric CO2 measurements. The finer details about exactly when and where the emissions occurred are often not available, but more transparent monitoring of CO2 emissions could help track the effectiveness of policies to reduce emissions.

Today GPS satellites help us to get around, meteorological satellites track weather systems and communication satellites relay TV, internet and telephone signals. It is time we use satellites to help tackle the biggest challenge that humanity has ever faced — climate change.

Satellites for measuring CO2

A global network of ground-based CO2 measurements began in 1957 and now consists of over one hundred stations around the world. Accurate and precise measurements from these stations have revealed a lot about changes in global atmospheric CO2 and Earth’s overall carbon cycle, but we can’t place these stations everywhere on Earth.

Satellites can observe the entire planet. Those that measure CO2 in the lower atmosphere near Earth’s surface (where CO2 emissions and CO2 uptake by plants happens) first began making measurements in 2002. Since then, they have been getting better and better at doing it, but there have been setbacks along the way.

About a decade of effort by NASA went into developing the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) satellite to make precise measurements of atmospheric CO2 across the Earth.

NASA's OCO undergoing development prior to launch
NASA developed the Orbiting Carbon Observatory satellite to make precise measurements of atmospheric CO2 across the Earth. (NASA/JPL), Author provided

In 2009, OCO was lost due to a launch problem. After sustained advocacy for a rebuild of this important climate mission, NASA secured new funding to launch the OCO-2 satellite in 2014 and OCO-3 to the International Space Station in 2019.

The OCO missions were designed to improve our understanding of vegetation’s CO2 absorption, also known as the land carbon sink. But what about fossil fuel CO2 emissions?

A new way to verify CO2 emissions

In 2017, I led a research team that published the first study showing that we can quantify CO2 emissions at the scale of an individual power plant using OCO-2 observations.

Since OCO-2 was not designed for this purpose, its coverage and infrequent visits were inadequate for operational global CO2 emission monitoring, but we can still quantify emissions in select cases when the satellite passes close enough and gets a good cloud-free view.

OCO-3 is very similar to OCO-2, but has an additional pointing mirror that enables it to better map CO2 around targets of interest like the Bełchatów Power Station in Poland, Europe’s largest fossil fuel burning power plant and CO2 source.

A Power Station
Bełchatów Power Station, Europe’s largest fossil fuel burning power plant. (Shutterstock)

With ten clear views of CO2 emission plumes from Bełchatów imaged by OCO-2 and OCO-3 from 2017-2022 analyzed in our new study, we were able to determine emissions on those days.

European power plants report hourly power generation but only annual CO2 emissions. Power generation fluctuates with electricity demand and generating unit shutdowns (for maintenance or decommissioning) and CO2 emissions are expected to exhibit proportional fluctuations.

We confirmed this using OCO-2 and OCO-3 in our recent paper, which showed that satellite observations can track changes in facility-level CO2 emissions. This means that satellites can be used to verify (or refute) reported CO2 emission reductions that result from climate change mitigation — like mandated efficiency improvements, carbon capture and storage technology, etc.

OCO-3 observations of a CO2 emission plume from the Bełchatów Power Station in Poland on April 10, 2020 overlaid on Google Earth imagery.
A plume of high CO2 resulting from coal burning is evident down wind from the Bełchatów Power Station in OCO-3 observations. (Ray Nassar), Author provided

Emissions monitoring for the Paris Agreement

Our approach can be applied to more power plants or modified for CO2 emissions from cities or countries with OCO-2 and OCO-3. We can also try integrating the satellite observations with CO2 monitoring from the ground or aircraft.

While we are already working on this, advances will only be incremental until the launch of the European Commission-funded Copernicus Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring Mission or “CO2M”. CO2M is comprised of two satellites, aiming to launch in late 2025.

These satellites will provide about 50 times as much coverage as OCO-2 and OCO-3 combined and will form the space component of Europe’s system for CO2 emissions Monitoring, Verification and Support (MVS).

CO2M will be a major advance, but just like successful global climate action, requires contributions from many countries. The long-term robust operational global monitoring of GHG emissions will need a constellation of satellites contributed by multiple countries as part of an integrated global observing system.

Hopefully, with new, more detailed and transparent tracking of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions to assess and guide us toward the most effective policies, society can achieve the emission reductions needed to reach net-zero in time.

Ray Nassar, Research Scientist at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), Adjunct Professor in Atmospheric Physics, University of Toronto

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Conversation

Scientists discover five new species of black corals living thousands of feet below the ocean surface near the Great Barrier Reef

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Researchers discovered five new species of black corals, including this Hexapathes bikofskii growing out of a nautilus shell more than 2,500 feet (760 meters) below the surface. Jeremy Horowitz, CC BY-NC

Jeremy Horowitz, Smithsonian Institution

The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work.

The big idea

Using a remote-controlled submarine, my colleagues and I discovered five new species of black corals living as deep as 2,500 feet (760 meters) below the surface in the Great Barrier Reef and Coral Sea off the coast of Australia.

Black corals can be found growing both in shallow waters and down to depths of over 26,000 feet (8,000 meters), and some individual corals can live for over 4,000 years. Many of these corals are branched and look like feathers, fans or bushes, while others are straight like a whip. Unlike their colorful, shallow-water cousins that rely on the sun and photosynthesis for energy, black corals are filter feeders and eat tiny zooplankton that are abundant in deep waters. https://www.youtube.com/embed/MYncyEIDr10?wmode=transparent&start=0 The team of researchers collected 60 specimens of black corals over 31 dives using a remotely operated submarine.

In 2019 and 2020, I and a team of Australian scientists used the Schmidt Ocean Institute’s remotely operated vehicle – a submarine named SuBastian – to explore the Great Barrier Reef and Coral Sea. Our goal was to collect samples of coral species living in waters from 130 feet to 6,000 feet (40 meters to 1,800 meters) deep. In the past, corals from the deep parts of this region were collected using dredging and trawling methods that would often destroy the corals.

Our two expeditions were the first to send a robot down to these particular deep-water ecosystems, allowing our team to actually see and safely collect deep sea corals in their natural habitats. Over the course of 31 dives, my colleagues and I collected 60 black coral specimens. We would carefully remove the corals from the sandy floor or coral wall using the rover’s robotic claws, place the corals in a pressurized, temperature-controlled storage box and then bring them up to the surface. We would then examine the physical features of the corals and sequence their DNA.

Among the many interesting specimens were five new species – including one we found growing on the shell of a nautilus more than 2,500 feet (760 meters) below the ocean’s surface.

A robotic arm grabbing a thin coral off of a rock.
Researchers used the robotic arm of their rover to collect over 100 samples of rare corals and brought them up to the surface for further study. Jeremy Horowitz, CC BY-ND

Why it matters

Similarly to shallow-water corals that build colorful reefs full of fish, black corals act as important habitats where fish and invertebrates feed and hide from predators in what is otherwise a mostly barren sea floor. For example, a single black coral colony researchers collected in 2005 off the coast of California was home to 2,554 individual invertebrates.

Recent research has begun to paint a picture of a deep sea that contains far more species than biologists previously thought. Considering there are only 300 known species of black corals in the world, finding five new species in one general location was very surprising and exciting for our team. Many black corals are threatened by illegal harvesting for jewelry. In order to pursue smart conservation of these fascinating and hard-to-reach habitats, it is important for researchers to know what species live at these depths and the geographic ranges of individual species.

A large, white, tree-like coral underwater.
Black corals don’t form large reefs like shallow corals, but individuals can get quite large – like this Antipathes dendrochristos found off the coast of California – and act as habitat for thousands of other organisms. Mark Amend/NOAA via Wikimedia Commons

What still isn’t known

Every time scientists explore the deep sea, they discover new species. Simply exploring more is the best thing researchers can do to fill in knowledge gaps about what species live there and how they are distributed.

Because so few specimens of deep-sea black corals have been collected, and so many undiscovered species are likely still out there, there is also a lot to learn about the evolutionary tree of corals. The more species that biologists discover, the better we will be able to understand their evolutionary history – including how they have survived at least four mass extinction events.

What’s next

The next step for my colleagues and me is to continue to explore the ocean’s seafloor. Researchers have yet to collect DNA from most of the known species of black corals. In future expeditions, my colleagues and I plan to return to other deep reefs in the Great Barrier Reef and Coral Sea to continue to learn more about and better protect these habitats.

Jeremy Horowitz, Post-doctoral Fellow in Invertebrate Zoology, Smithsonian Institution

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Conversation, Thought's on World Issues, Ukraine

When tragedy becomes banal: Why news consumers experience crisis fatigue

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As the war continues in Ukraine, a grandmother helps her grandchild light candles in a church in Lviv. AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti

Rebecca Rozelle-Stone, University of North Dakota

When Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by land, air and sea on Feb. 24, 2022, the images of war were conveyed to dismayed onlookers around the world. Far from the action, many of us became aware of the unprovoked aggression by reading online coverage or watching TV to see explosions and people running from danger and crowding into underground bunkers.

Half a year later, the violence continues. But for those who have not been directly affected by the events, this ongoing war and its casualties have been shifting to the periphery of many people’s attention.

This turning away makes sense.

Being attentive to realities like war is often painful, and people are not well-equipped to keep a sustained focus on ongoing or traumatic occurrences.

In addition, since the war in Ukraine began, many other events have arisen to occupy the world’s attention. These include droughts, wildfires, storms tied to global warming, mass shootings and the reversal of Roe v. Wade.

As the philosopher-psychologist William James asked, “Does not every sudden shock, appearance of a new object, or change in a sensation, create a real interruption?”

Ongoing tragic events, like the assault on Ukraine, can recede from people’s attention because many may feel overwhelmed, helpless or drawn to other urgent issues. This phenomenon is called “crisis fatigue.”

A firetruck drives near a burning wildfire.
The McKinney Fire burned more than 60,000 acres in Northern California this summer, killing four people and destroying 90 residences. Drought conditions enabled the fire to spread quickly. AP Photo/Noah Berger, CC BY

Roots of crisis fatigue

Malevolent actors and authoritarians like Putin are aware of public fatigue and use it to their advantage. “War fatigue is kicking in,” the Estonian prime minister, Kaja Kallas, said. “Russia is playing on us getting tired. We must not fall into the trap.”

In a speech to marketing professionals in Cannes, France, the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, asked them to keep the world focused on his country’s plight. “I’ll be honest with you – the end of this war and its circumstances depend on the world’s attention …,” he said. “Don’t let the world switch to something else!”

Unfortunately, many of us have already changed the channel. The tragic has become banal.

I became interested in the phenomenon of fatigue as a result of my scholarly research into moral attentiveness. This idea was articulated by the 20th-century French philosopher and social activist Simone Weil.

A 1936 photo of French philosopher Simone Weil dressed in military clothing holding a rifle.
Simone Weil, a French philosopher, joined the Durruti Column in 1936 during the Spanish Civil War. Her scholarly work of social justice focused on the oppressed and marginalized in society. Apic/Hulton Archives via Getty Images, CC BY

According to Weil, moral attention is the capacity to open ourselves up fully – intellectually, emotionally and even physically – to the realities that we encounter. She described such attention as vigilance, a suspension of our ego-driven frameworks and personal desires in favor of a Buddhist-like emptiness of mind. This mindset receives, raw and unfiltered, whatever is presented without avoidance or projection.

Not surprisingly, Weil found attention to be inseparable from compassion, or “suffering with” the other. There is no avoiding pain and anguish when one attends to the afflicted; hence, she wrote that “thought flies from affliction as promptly and irresistibly as an animal flies from death.”

The sensitivity involved in attending to crises can be a double-edged sword. On one hand, attention can put people in touch with the unvarnished lives of others so the afflicted are truly seen and heard. On the other, such openness can overwhelm many of us through vicarious trauma, as psychologists Lisa McCann and Laurie Pearlman have noted.

Two young people place candles on the ground.
Protests are a visual reminder of the devastating war in Ukraine. Ehimetalor Akhere Unuabona for Unsplash, CC BY

The difficulty of sustained focus on events like the war is due not only to the inherent fragility of moral attention, however. As cultural critics like Neil Postman, James Williams and Maggie Jackson have noted, the 24/7 news cycle is one of many pressures clamoring for our attention. Our smartphones and other technology with incessant communications – from trivial to apocalyptic – engineer environments to keep us perpetually distracted and disoriented.

Why audiences tune out

Aside from the threats to people’s attention posed by our distracting technologies and information overload, there is also the fact of crisis fatigue leading readers to consume less news.

This year, a Reuters Institute analysis showed that interest in news has decreased sharply across all markets, from 63% in 2017 to 51% in 2022, while a full 15% of Americans have disconnected from news coverage altogether.

Men looking at multiple monitors.
The sheer volume of digital news and information has an unintended side effect: News consumers are tuning out. ThisisEngineering RAEng for Unsplash, CC BY

According to the Reuters report, the reasons for this differ, in part, with political affiliation. Conservative voters tend to avoid the news because they deem it untrustworthy or biased, while liberal voters avoid news because of feelings of powerlessness and fatigue. Online news, with its perpetual drive to keep eyes trained on screens, is unwittingly undermining its own goals: to provide news and keep the public informed.

Taking a new tack

How might we recover a capacity for meaningful attention and responses amid incessant, disjointed and overwhelming news? Scholars have made a variety of recommendations, usually focused on reining in digital device usage. Beyond this, readers and journalists might consider the following:

  1. Limiting the daily intake of news can help people become more attentive to particular issues of concern without feeling overwhelmed. Cultural theorist Yves Citton, in his book “The Ecology of Attention,” urges readers to “extract” themselves “from the hold of the alertness media regime.” According to him, the current media creates a state of “permanent alertness” through “crisis discourses, images of catastrophes, political scandals, and violent news items.” At the same time, reading long-form articles and essays can actually be a practice that helps with cultivating attentiveness.
  2. Journalists can include more solutions-based stories that capture the possibility of change. Avenues for action can be offered to readers to counteract paralysis in the face of tragedy. Amanda Ripley, a former Time magazine journalist, notes that “stories that offer hope, agency, and dignity feel like breaking news right now, because we are so overwhelmed with the opposite.”

Weil, who was committed to the responsibility of moral attentiveness but did not romanticize tragedy, wrote, “Nothing is so beautiful and wonderful, nothing is so continually fresh and surprising, so full of sweet and perpetual ecstasy, as the good.”

Rebecca Rozelle-Stone, Professor of Philosophy, University of North Dakota

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Conversation

Misinformation is a common thread between the COVID-19 and HIV/AIDS pandemics – with deadly consequences

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Disinformation can derail public health measures vital to controlling the spread of infectious disease. AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

Cristian Apetrei, University of Pittsburgh Health Sciences

Since health officials confirmed the first COVID-19 cases, misinformation has spread just as quickly as the virus. Social media may have made the amount, variety and speed of misinformation seem unprecedented, but COVID-19 isn’t the first pandemic where false and harmful information has set back public health.

Misinformation altered how people trusted their governments and doctors during the 1918 influenza pandemic. It fueled the 19th century smallpox anti-vaccine movements through some of the same arguments as those currently used against the COVID-19 vaccine.

What sets the COVID-19 pandemic apart, however, is the sheer magnitude of damaging disinformation put in circulation around the world. Data shows that regions and countries where disinformation thrived experienced more lethal pandemic waves despite vaccine availability. In the U.S., for example, viewership of a Fox News program that downplayed the pandemic is associated with increased COVID-19 cases and deaths. Similarly in Romania, disinformation is a contributing factor to the country’s disastrous fourth wave of COVID-19. https://www.youtube.com/embed/Xl9zgDGko5U?wmode=transparent&start=0 The COVID-19 infodemic began as soon as the first few cases of infections were confirmed.

The problem of misinformation has been so widespread that it has its own word: “infodemic,” a portmanteau of “information” and “epidemic.” Coined by journalist David Rothkopf during the 2003 SARS outbreak, it describes a situation where “a few facts, mixed with fear, speculation and rumor, are amplified and relayed swiftly worldwide by modern information technologies.”

Infodemics can affect economies, politics, national security and public health. The COVID-19 infodemic became such a problem that the Royal Society and the British Academy released an October 2020 report noting its significant impact on vaccine deployment, endorsing legislation that prosecutes those who spread misinformation.

As a researcher who studies HIV and lived through the AIDS pandemic, I felt a sense of déjà vu as COVID-19 disinformation spread. In the 40 years since the emergence of AIDS, society has learned how to cope with the disease with more effective diagnostics, treatments and preventive strategies, transforming AIDS from a lethal condition to a chronic disease.

However, there are striking parallels between the HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 pandemics that show the dire consequences disinformation can have on both patients and society as a whole.

Denying the existence of a virus or a pandemic

There are people who deny the existence of COVID-19. There are abundant claims on social media that the virus that causes COVID-19 has never been isolated, or it is insufficiently characterized. Others do not contest the existence of COVID-19, but ignore the severe consequences of infection.

In general, these groups tend to also deny germ theory, claiming that infectious diseases are not caused by pathogens like viruses and bacteria. Instead, they promote the idea that pathogens don’t cause disease, but rather are a consequence of it. https://www.youtube.com/embed/J0UTqngnsuY?wmode=transparent&start=0 Misinformation is just one common theme between the COVID-19 and HIV/AIDS pandemics.

Likewise, some denied the role of the HIV virus in AIDS infection. AIDS denialist Peter Duesberg was one person who disseminated this misinformation, which had been refuted by the scientific community at large. But his erroneous claim still reached the then president of the Republic of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki, who banned the use of lifesaving antiretrovirals in public hospitals. This decision resulted in the deaths of over 330,000 people from HIV/AIDS between 2000 and 2005.

Mbeki’s decision was considered so damaging that scientists and physicians worldwide signed the Durban Declaration, reiterating that HIV indeed causes AIDS and urging Mbeki to reconsider his decision. While the government did reverse the ban after strong international political pressure, the damage had been done.

Gain of function claims

Gain of function experiments involve manipulating a pathogen to understand what contributes to its ability to cause disease. At the same time, such experiments can give pathogens new abilities, such as making viruses more transmissible or more dangerous to humans. Conspiracy theorists have made claims that the COVID-19 virus resulted from alterations to a bat version of the virus that gave it the ability to replicate in human cells.

But these claims ignore several key facts about the COVID-19 virus, including that all coronaviruses from bats can infect humans without additional adaptation. The mutations that increased the transmissibility of COVID-19 occurred after it started circulating in people, resulting in even more infectious variants.

HIV also saw conspiracy theories claiming that it was created in a lab for genocide. But research has shown that HIV also naturally evolved from an animals. African non-human primates are natural hosts to a vast group of viruses collectively called simian immunodeficiency viruses (SIV). Despite their high rates of SIV infection in the wild, these primate hosts typically don’t experience symptoms or progress to AIDS. Throughout the evolutionary history of SIV, jumping to a new host species involved naturally occurring genetic changes over the course of thousands of years.

Miracle cures

During a public health crisis, researchers and health officials are learning about a disease in real time. While missteps are expected, these can be perceived by the public as hesitation, incompetence or failure. https://www.youtube.com/embed/Sg3-KxH9iqc?wmode=transparent&start=0 There are some steps you can take to identify misinformation.

As researchers looked for possible COVID-19 treatments, others were offering their own unproven drugs. Multiple treatments for COVID-19, including ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine, were tested and abandoned. But not before large amounts of time, effort and money were spent on disproving claims that these were supposed miracle treatments. Similarly for HIV, frustration and anxiety from a continued lack of available treatments amid rising deaths led to fraudulent cures, with price tags of tens of thousands of dollars.

Even though treatment delays and changing guidelines are a natural process of learning about a new diseases as it unfolds, they can open the door to disinformation and generate distrust in doctors even as they care for infected patients.

Preventing misinfodemics

The next pandemic is not a question of if but when and where it will occur. Just as important as devising ways to detect emerging viruses is developing strategies to address the misinfodemics that will follow them. The recent monkeypox outbreak has already seen similar spread of mis- and disinformation about its source and spread.

As author Gabriel Garcia Marquez once said, “A lie is more comfortable than doubt, more useful than love, more lasting than truth.” Countering misinformation is difficult, because there are reasons other than ignorance for why someone believes in a falsehood. In those cases, presenting the facts may not be enough, and may sometimes even result in someone doubling down on a false belief. But focusing on urgent scientific and medical needs to the exclusion of rapidly addressing misinformation can derail pandemic control. Strategies that take misinformation into account can help other pandemic control measures be more successful.

Cristian Apetrei, Professor of Immunology, Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, University of Pittsburgh Health Sciences

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.